£810 / $1295 / €985
We acknowledge the Nigerian government's endeavours to crack down on counterfeit drugs and reduce medical tourism out of the country, in addition to achieving, in our view, the overly ambitious goal of relaunching the National HIV Vaccine Plan. However, BMI maintains that the government needs to address fundamental issues in the healthcare sector as a first priority. Poor infrastructure, a brain drain of health professionals and inadequate funding of the public system mean enrolment in the sector will continue to be slow, hindering growth in the market. In the pharmaceuticals sector, BMI maintains the view that strong growth lies ahead, based on the rapidly growing population and emerging middle class, though high unemployment and low per capita spending, in addition to weak regulatory and intellectual property (IP) laws, are significant risks to the uptake of medicines in the country.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: NGN143.65bn (US$921mn) in 2011 to NGN166.82bn (US$1.05bn) in 2012; +16.1% in local currency terms and +14.1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts are slightly lower than in Q4 12 due to downward revision to GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013.
Healthcare: NGN1,592.71bn (US$10.22bn) in 2011 to NGN1,751.29bn (US$11.04bn) in 2012; +10.0% in local currency terms and +8.0% in US dollar terms. Forecasts are slightly lower than in Q4 12 due to downward revision to GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013.
Medical devices: NGN30.00bn (US$192mn) in 2011 to NGN35.42bn (US$223mn) in 2012; +18.1% in local currency terms and +16.0% in US dollar terms . Forecasts are slightly lower than in Q4 12 due to downward revision to GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.