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The Pharmaceutical Market: Japan

Published 19 August 2014

  • 162 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
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The Pharmaceutical Market: Japan

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
19
Healthcare Market Forecast
20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
22
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
24
Patented Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
26
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
30
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
30
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
34
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
36
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Japan 2012-2018)
36
Other Healthcare Data
37
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
38
Macroeconomic Forecasts
39
Economic Analysis
39
Corporate Japan Not Convinced
40
Private Consumption Could Possibly Contract In 2014
41
Table: Japan - Economic Activity
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Asia Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Japan Risk/Reward Ratings
50
Rewards
50
Risks
51
Market Overview
52
Industry Trends And Developments
54
Epidemiology
54
Healthcare Sector
57
Clinical Trials
58
Regulatory Development
61
Regulatory Regime
61
Table: OTC Drug Categories In Japan
64
Table: Prescription-To-OTC Switches In Japan (2000-2012)
65
Table: NCEs Approved by Origin, 2000-2010
69
Table: Timeline Of NHI Drug List Price Cuts In Japan, 1992-2010
69
Competitive Landscape
72
Pharmaceutical Sector
72
Table: Top 15 Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation On The Tokyo Stock Exchange
78
Foreign Generic Industry
78
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
79
Pharmaceutical Retail
81
Company Profile
90
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
90
Astellas
95
Eisai
102
Daiichi Sankyo
109
Mitsubishi Tanabe
115
Sawai Pharmaceutical
118
Pfizer
121
Sanofi
125
Merck & Co
129
Novartis
133
GlaxoSmithKline
138
AstraZeneca
142
Demographic Forecast
146
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
147
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
148
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
149
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
149
Glossary
150
Methodology
152
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
152
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
152
Notes On Methodology
153
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
154
Ratings Overview
155
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
155
Indicator Weightings
156
OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN JAPAN

Japan's ageing and affluent population represents strong opportunities for foreign drugmakers. However, given its weak macroeconomic, there is a risk that the country will not be able to sustain its generous welfare for the people and will seek to save costs through the use of more generic drugs and price cuts. Nevertheless, the current profile broods well for generic drugmakers as well as companies focusing on eldercare and chronic disease management.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: JPY10,157bn (US$127.4bn) in 2011 to JPY10,206bn (US$130.9bn) in 2012; +0.5% in local currency terms and +2.7% in US dollar terms. Ourforecast is unchangedsinceQ312.

Healthcare: JPY47,810bn (US$599.60bn) in 2011 to JPY49,305bn (US$632bn) in 2012; +3.0% in local currency terms and +5.4% in US dollar terms. Ourforecasthasbeenrevisedupwardsslightly from Q412 following reassessment of historic data.

Medical Devices: JPY2,220bn (US$27.8bn) in 2011 to JPY2,212bn (US$28.4n) in 2012; -0.5% in local currency terms and +1.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly downgradedfrom Q412due to reassessment of historic values.

Risk/RewardRating

In Q113, Japan's score on BMI's Asia PacificPharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings maintains at 77.0 and continues to enjoy its status as the most attractive pharmaceutical market in the region. The country scores highly for all indicators in the proprietary model, including an ageing population, large pharmaceutical market, lack of corruption and extensive bureaucracy and will continue to be targeted by multinational drugmakers both innovative and generics.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

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