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The Pharmaceutical Market: Japan

Published 05 February 2014

  • 141 pages
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The Pharmaceutical Market: Japan

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
21
Economic Analysis
21
Expenditures To Soar With More Public Works And Subsidies
22
How Much More Can Debt Levels Grow-
23
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
27
Patented Drug Market Forecast
28
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
29
Generic Drug Market Forecast
30
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
32
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
33
Table: OTC Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
36
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
37
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
38
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (JPYmn)
38
Other Healthcare Data
39
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q213
42
Rewards
43
Risks
43
Market Overview
45
Industry Trends And Developments
46
Epidemiology
46
Non-Communicable Diseases
47
Communicable Diseases
48
Mental Health
49
Healthcare Sector
49
Clinical Trials
51
Regulatory Development
52
Regulatory Regime
52
Table: NCEs Approved by Origin, 2000-2010
57
Table: Timeline Of NHI Drug List Price Cuts In Japan, 1992-2010
57
Competitive Landscape
59
Pharmaceutical Sector
59
Table: Top 15 Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation On The Tokyo Stock Exchange
60
Foreign Generic Industry
61
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
61
Pharmaceutical Retail
64
Company Profile
66
Takeda
66
Astellas
70
Eisai
75
Daiichi Sankyo
79
Mitsuibishi Tanabe
83
Sawai
85
Pfizer
87
Sanofi
90
Merck & Co
93
Novartis
96
GSK
99
AstraZeneca
101
Demographic Forecast
103
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
104
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
105
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
106
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
106
Glossary
107
Methodology
109
Methodology
109
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
109
Ratings Overview
110
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
110
Weighting
111
Table: Weighting Of Components
111
Sources
111
OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN JAPAN

Japan's ageing and affluent population represents strong opportunities for foreign drugmakers. However, given its weak macroeconomic, there is a risk that the country will not be able to sustain its generous welfare for the people and will seek to save costs through the use of more generic drugs and price cuts. Nevertheless, the current profile broods well for generic drugmakers as well as companies focusing on eldercare and chronic disease management.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: JPY10,157bn (US$127.4bn) in 2011 to JPY10,206bn (US$130.9bn) in 2012; +0.5% in local currency terms and +2.7% in US dollar terms. Ourforecast is unchangedsinceQ312.

Healthcare: JPY47,810bn (US$599.60bn) in 2011 to JPY49,305bn (US$632bn) in 2012; +3.0% in local currency terms and +5.4% in US dollar terms. Ourforecasthasbeenrevisedupwardsslightly from Q412 following reassessment of historic data.

Medical Devices: JPY2,220bn (US$27.8bn) in 2011 to JPY2,212bn (US$28.4n) in 2012; -0.5% in local currency terms and +1.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly downgradedfrom Q412due to reassessment of historic values.

Risk/RewardRating

In Q113, Japan's score on BMI's Asia PacificPharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings maintains at 77.0 and continues to enjoy its status as the most attractive pharmaceutical market in the region. The country scores highly for all indicators in the proprietary model, including an ageing population, large pharmaceutical market, lack of corruption and extensive bureaucracy and will continue to be targeted by multinational drugmakers both innovative and generics.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

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