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The Pharmaceutical Market: China

Published 03 June 2014

  • 194 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
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The Pharmaceutical Market: China

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2009-2017
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2009-2017
18
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2009-2017
18
Table: Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2009-2017
19
Economic Analysis
19
The Recovery Is On-
20
-But Major Headwinds Blow
22
2012 Was Only A Warning Shot
23
Risks Are Weighted To The Downside
24
Table: China - Economic Activity
25
Prescription Market Forecast
26
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2009-2017
27
Patented Drug Market Forecast
28
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2009-2017
29
Generic Drug Market Forecast
29
Table: China Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2009-2017
30
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
30
Regulatory Regime
32
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2009-2017
33
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
34
Table: China Export And Import Indicators 2009-2017
35
Other Healthcare Data
36
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical And Healthcare RRRs, Q213
39
Rewards
40
Risks
40
Market Overview
42
Industry Trends And Developments
44
Epidemiology
44
Table: Death Rate Of Major Diseases In Urban And Rural Areas (2011)
46
Healthcare Sector
47
Research And Development
51
Table: Selected List Of MNC With R&D Bases In China
51
Biotechnology Sector
56
Regulatory Development
63
Regulatory Regime
63
Table: Important China GMP Deadlines
66
Intellectual Property Issues
67
Pricing Regime
72
Reimbursement Regime
75
Competitive Landscape
78
Pharmaceutical Industry
78
Table: Top 20 China Or Hong Kong-Based Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation
78
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
79
Recent Developments
80
Traditional Chinese Medicine
82
Company Profile
85
Sinopharm
85
China Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group
88
North China Pharmaceutical Corporation
90
Shanghai Pharmaceutical
92
GSK
94
Pfizer
97
AstraZeneca
100
Merck KGaA
104
Sanofi
107
Novartis
110
Roche
115
Eli Lilly
119
Merck & Co
122
Bayer
126
Demographic Forecast
129
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
130
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
131
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
132
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
132
Glossary
133
Methodology
135
Methodology
135
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
135
Ratings Overview
136
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
136
Weighting
137
Table: Weighting Of Components
137
Sources
137
OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN CHINA

We remain bullish on China's pharmaceutical sector despite the slowdown in the economy and political reshuffle. We do not think the reshuffle will have any adverse changes or cause any reversals to healthcare reform given that the country has been rolling out various healthcare schemes in 2012 and that a key person overseeing these healthcare reform plans is Vice Premier Li Keqiang, the man who may potentially take over from Premier Wen Jiabao in the reshuffle. However, the business environment will potentially be threaten by cost- containment policies as the country will have to contain its ever-growing healthcare expenditure.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: CNY432bn (US66.7bn) in 2011to CNY521bn (US$82.2bn) in 2012; +20.6% in local currency and +23.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q412.

Healthcare: CNY2313bn (US$358bn) in 2011 to CNY2,602bn (US$410bn) in 2012; +12.5% in local currency terms and +14.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q412.

Medical Devices: CNY117bn (US$18.2bn) in 2011 to CNY146bn (US$22.8bn) in 2012; +24.3% in local currency terms and +26.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q412.

Risk/Reward Rating

China continues to rank fourth out of the 18 key markets in BMI's Q113 Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings with an unchanged score of 62.5 Its high ranking on the table (just behind developed markets Japan, South Korea and Australia) is largely due to the strong growth potential of the pharmaceutical market that is underpinned by a large and increasingly affluent population and an increasing burden of non-communication diseases.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

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