£810 / $1295 / €985
THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET: LITHUANIA - REVIEW
We continue to hold our subdued outlook for the Lithuanian pharmaceuticals market during the next few years, on account of the changing economic and demographic situation. We expect limited low single digit growth in 2012 , with the market expected to increase by a local currency margin of 2.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach LTL1.6 8 bn (US$6 18 mn) in 2012 at consumer prices. However, in US dollar terms, the market ' s value will shrink by 6.3%, in dicating the challenges facing companies operating in the market .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: LTL1.64bn (US$659mn) in 2011 to LTL1.68bn (US$618mn) in 2012; +2.5% in local currency terms and -6.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q4 12 on account of new macroeconomic data.
Healthcare: LTL6.99bn (US$2.81bn) in 2011 to LTL7.29bn (US$2.68bn) in 2012; +4.3% in local currency terms and -4.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q4 12 on account of new macroeconomic data.
Medical devices: LTL679mn (US$273mn) in 2011 to LTL749mn (US$276mn) in 2012; +10.3% in local currency terms and +0.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q4 12 on account of new macroeconomic data.
Risk/Reward Rating: In our Q1 13 Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) matrix, Lithuania is 15th, out of the 20 markets surveyed in Emerging Europe, below its Baltic peers. Although Lithuania boasts a largely risk-free operating environment, its muted rewards prospects will continue to impact its standing in the regional matrix. Globally, Lithuania ranks 60th out of 95 markets surveyed.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.