£810 / $1295 / €985
THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET: LATVIA - REVIEW
Our view of the Latvian pharmaceutical market remains shaped by the prevailing economic conditions given the high out-of-pocket contributions to medicine spending . This is especially pertinent as the government has over the recent months cut healthcare spending in a bid to remain eligible for EU and IMF loan packages, as well in preparation for potential eurozone membership . While we still expect the market to contract in US dollar terms in 2012, the contraction is expected to be less severe, at 2.4% on a year-on-year basis on account of a somewhat improved economic environment and stronger-than-expected wholesale trade .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: LVL206mn (US$405mn) in 2011 to LVL220mn (US$396mn) in 2012; +7.0% in local currency terms and -2.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q412 on account of improved macroeconomic and wholesale trade data.
Healthcare: LVL893mn (US$1.76bn) in 2011 to LVL926mn (US$1.66bn) in 2012; +3.7% in local currency terms and -5.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 4 12.
Medical Devices: LVL78mn (US$153mn) in 2011 to LVL81mn (US$145mn) in 2012; +3.7% in local currency terms and -5.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 4 12.
Risk/Reward Rating: While Latvia offers a favourable risk profile, supported by a business-friendly operating environment, its pharmaceutical market value is expected to shrink in 2012 as measured in US dollars, which negatively impacts its potential commercial rewards. Therefore, Latvia continues to be viewed as one of the least promising markets in the Emerging Europe region, currently ranking 13th out of the 20 countries surveyed in Q113.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.