£810 / $1295 / €985
Our outlookforHungary's pharmaceutical market remains negative, given thegovernment's policies that shift the burden of the National Healthcare Fund (OEP) onto drug manufacturers. Pricing pressure and claw-back taxes have squeezed domestic manufacturers'margins and introduced insecurity to an already difficulteconomicenvironment, and we continue to expect a contraction in the size of the Hungarian pharmaceutical market in 2012 and 2013. Consequently, Hungariandrugmakers willhave to becomeevenmore export-orientated.That said, afavourable tax regime forresearchanddevelopment shouldattract foreigninvestment, though these multinationals will focus most of their sales effortsonexternal markets, supporting our view that Hungary's status as anet exporter of pharmaceutical productswillincrease.
Headline Expenditure Projections :
Pharmaceuticals : HUF691.61bn (US$3.44bn) in 2011 to HUF608.22bn (US$2.71bn) in 2012;
-12.1% in local currency terms and -21.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast down from Q4 12 due to cost-containment measures .
Healthcare: HUF2,013bn (US$10.01bn) in 2011 to HUF2,003bn (US$8.92bn) in 2012; -0.5% in local currency terms and -10.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q4 12 .
Medical Devices : HUF117.09bn (US$582mn) in 2011 to HUF117.95bn (US$526mn) in 2012; +0.7% in local currency terms and -9.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q4 12.
Risk/Reward Rating: In our Risk/Rewards Rating (RRR) matrix for Q113, Hungary's composite score again stands at 53.1 out of the maximum 100 points, ranking the country 8th out of 20 markets surveyed in the emerging Europe region. We also retain our pessimistic outlook for its pharmaceutical market rewards, on account of government's cost-containment policies.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.