£810 / $1295 / €985
THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET: GREECE - REVIEW
The immediate threat of a Greek default and eurozone exit was reduced as the outcome of the legislative elections in June had a much more benign outcome than many feared. A n exit would have - and could still be - disastrous for drugmakers operating in the market. But even Greece staying in the monetary union means the government must continue with its austerity programme. While we continue to hold to our view that Germany and the rest of the EU may reduce the focus on austerity and introduce some pro-growth strategies, these are unlikely to generate any upside for the pharmaceutical industry and structural reforms within Greece will be maintained. T he government remains committed to huge cuts in its public drug expenditure for 2012, with a painful claw-back tax in operation and no extra resources available to pay-back existing debts.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR6.72bn (US$9.35bn) in 2011 to EUR5.92bn (US$7.52bn) in 2012;
-12.0% in local currency terms and -19.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly maintained from Q3 12.
Healthcare: EUR21.80bn (US$30.31bn) in 2011 to EUR20.34bn (US$25.83bn) in 2012; -6.7% in local currency terms and -14.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly stable from Q3 12.
Medical devices: EUR670mn (US$931mn) in 2011 to EU607mn (US$771mn) in 2012; -9.3% in local currency terms and -17.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q3 12.
Risk/Reward Rating: In our latest RRRs, we have revised down our assessment of the Greek market, with a downgrade to the industry risk score as a result of broadly unfavourable operating conditions worsening, specifically re-payment terms, which we have criticised previously, and our assessment of whether innovative drugmakers would want to launch new products on the market.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.