£810 / $1295 / €985
While the Arzneimittelmarkt-Neuordnungsgesetz ( AMNOG ) legislation will compress drug companies' revenue-earning opportunities in Germany, we believe the government's decision to make the final reimbursement prices of medicines sold in the country publicly available, and the use of reference pricing across the region, will also lead to price reductions in other countries, providing an aggregation of pricing pressures on companies operating throughout Europe . For its part, the German pharmaceutical market is expected to decline in value by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5% through to 2016, as expressed in local currency terms, or by 3.4% in US dollars.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals : EUR39.67bn (US$55.15bn) in 2011 to EUR38.65bn (US$49.08bn) in 2012; -2.6% in local currency terms and -11.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q4 12.
Healthcare : EUR272.67bn (US$379.01bn) in 2011 to EUR279.09bn (US$354.44bn) in 2012; +2.4% in local currency terms and -6.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q4 12.
Medical devices: EUR14.97bn (US$20.81bn) in 2011 to EUR15.62bn (US$19.83bn) in 2012; +4.3% in local currency terms and -4.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q4 12.
Risk/Reward Rating : In our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q113, Germany remains ranked third in Western Europe, behind Switzerland and the UK. Despite the tough pricing and reimbursement conditions and the effects of patent expirations, Germany remains one of the largest global pharmaceutical markets, which will continue to prop up its rewards score. Its risks are also expected to remain above the regional average, which is illustrative of the favourable operating environment.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.