£810 / $1295 / €985
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Improvements in Colombia's pharmaceutical re gulation system will expand local patients' access to medicines. However, it will also p ut pricing pressure s on drugmakers, and promote the use of generic versions, which will undermine the growth of patented drug market. Nevertheless, BMI expects more foreign pharmaceutical co mpanies to invest in Colombia, capitalising on the country's strong long-term growth prospects.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals : COP7,076bn (US$3.83bn) in 2011 to COP7,612bn (US$4.23bn) in 2012; +7.6% in local currency terms and +10.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q4 12.
Healthcare : COP29,953bn (US$16.21bn) in 2011 to COP31,557bn (US$17.53bn) in 2012; +5.4% growth in local currency terms and +8.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q4 12.
Medical devices: COP1,901bn (US$1.03bn) in 2011 to COP2,127bn (US$1.18bn) in 2012; +11.9% growth in local currency terms and +14.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q4 12.
Risk/Reward Rating:Despite a 3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) improvement in its composite score, Colombia slipped from sixth to seventh place out of the 17 countries surveyed in the Americas region. Nevertheless, we retain our positive view of Colombia's longer-term commercial opportunities for pharmaceutical companies, which are supported by factors such as substantial population numbers, steady economic development and underdeveloped pharmaceutical demand. On a negative note, we continue to view intellectual property (IP) shortcomings as problematic.
Competitive Landscape
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.